the US
Covid-19 Modelling

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For the US as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for the US

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 3.239941e+07 cases;

\(\beta\) = 2.110975e-06 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 9.268004e-04 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 1.498313e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 4564.757255;

T\(_{inc}\) = 1078.980945 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 66.741736 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.50e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.20e+01, \(R_0\) = 3.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 1.119641e+05 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 3.46e-03 or 0.3%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder