Covid-19 Modelling

Home World US Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Ecuador France Germany Iceland Iran Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New_Zealand Pakistan Peru Portugal Qatar Saudi_Arabia Singapore South_Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey

For Taiwan as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Taiwan

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 4.600794e+02 cases;

\(\beta\) = 4.912641e-04 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 8.620095e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 3.204832e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 7.052491;

T\(_{inc}\) = 11.600800 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 31.202888 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.80e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.60e+01, \(R_0\) = 2.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 6.353692e+01 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.38e-01 or 13.8%

Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder