Covid-19 Modelling

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For Singapore as of 2020-06-27, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Singapore

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 4.304538e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 5.021039e-06 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 8.466972e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 3.121763e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 6.923413;

T\(_{inc}\) = 11.810598 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 32.033178 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 7.20e+01, \(I_0\) = 5.40e+01, \(R_0\) = 1.80e+01.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 3.853436e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 8.95e-02 or 9.0%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder