Covid-19 Modelling

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For Portugal as of 2020-06-27, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Portugal

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 3.561028e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 4.645908e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 5.828573e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 1.660739e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 99.619590;

T\(_{inc}\) = 17.156859 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 60.214169 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 2.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 2.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 0.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 4.628576e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.30e-01 or 13.0%

Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder