Covid-19 Modelling

Home World US Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Ecuador France Germany Iceland Iran Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New_Zealand Pakistan Peru Portugal Qatar Saudi_Arabia Singapore South_Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey

For Portugal as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Portugal

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 4.168875e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 6.739635e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 3.577846e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 1.790117e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 156.954535;

T\(_{inc}\) = 27.949775 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 55.862274 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 2.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 2.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 0.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 4.674707e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.12e-01 or 11.2%

Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder