South Korea
Covid-19 Modelling

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For South Korea as of 2020-06-27, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for South Korea

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.112085e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.510624e-04 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 1.318187e-01 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 3.214627e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 52.259295;

T\(_{inc}\) = 7.586176 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 31.107811 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 2.80e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.90e+01, \(R_0\) = 9.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 8.344667e+02 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 7.50e-02 or 7.5%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder