Japan
Covid-19 Modelling

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For Japan as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Japan

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.934207e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.160250e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 1.211048e-01 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 3.530300e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 6.356866;

T\(_{inc}\) = 8.257313 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 28.326204 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 5.30e+01, \(I_0\) = 5.20e+01, \(R_0\) = 1.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 2.395640e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.24e-01 or 12.4%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder