Covid-19 Modelling

Home World US Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Ecuador France Germany Iceland India Iran Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New_Zealand Pakistan Peru Portugal Qatar Russia Saudi_Arabia Singapore South_Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey

For Brazil as of 2020-06-27, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Brazil

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 3.926841e+07 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.398572e-06 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 6.339865e-04 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 5.038150e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 1090.076794;

T\(_{inc}\) = 1577.320747 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 19.848557 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 0.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 3.573932e+04 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 9.10e-04 or 0.1%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder