Australia
Covid-19 Modelling

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For Australia as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Australia

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 7.321107e+03 cases;

\(\beta\) = 4.963975e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 2.058194e-01 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 4.515005e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 8.049115;

T\(_{inc}\) = 4.858630 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 22.148372 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.50e+01, \(I_0\) = 5.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 1.00e+01.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 8.678807e+02 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.19e-01 or 11.9%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder